Iron Ore Ships As Steel Shapes Up – US-FOREX.US
Concerns about speculative buying continues to temper optimism regarding strengthening base metal prices as the market seeks to differentiate real metal demand from stockpiling and other conjectural buying. According to a recent report, one sector boasting solid demand is steel.Metal demand from China during the first half of the year bolstered steel demand, likely accounting for 60% to 85% of sales, estimates Tony Rizzuto, an analyst and managing director at Dahlman Rose & Co. He is one of the authors of the firm’s recent “Iron Ore, Steel and Dry Bulk Review” that highlights the Chinese government’s efforts to deflate speculative bubbles while maintaining steady growth by encouraging banks to lower lending. According to the review, steel and iron ore will continue to trend higher, supported by strong consumption. Automobile and construction industries account for the bulk of Chinese steel consumption. Auto sales have been rising in China as its economy grows even as the world remains in recession and in the U.S., thanks to the government’s Cash for Clunkers program. For a read on construction demand, report authors Rizzuto and Omar Nokta, an analyst and head of research at Dahlman Rose, looked to cement production. Cement is a good indication of rebar consumption and unlike most base metals, it isn’t easy to stockpile massive amounts of cement. Therefore, increased cement production indicates a pickup in construction activity and bolstered steel demand. Chinese steel trends suggest stronger iron ore consumption both from China and other global markets that have seen blast furnace restarts such as South Korea, Japan and Europe. Since these markets also depend on the seaborne market for iron ore, bulk dry freight demand is also strengthening. Rizzuto and Nokta estimate that China will import 518.4 metric tons of iron ore from the seaborne market, up from their prior projection for imports of 448.3 million tons. Companies poised to benefit from these trends, according to the report, include ArcelorMittal
, BHP Billiton
and Steel Dynamics
in metals and mining; and Diana Shipping
, Genco Shipping & Trading Limited
and Navios Maritime Holdings
in the dry bulk sector.